Make Better Decisions Through the Lens of Uncertainty
Bespoke Bayesian consultancy bringing rigorous quantitative methods to organizations facing high-stakes economic decisions.
Explore our approach
Principled Uncertainty Quantification
We build Bayesian models that quantify uncertainty honestly, giving you full posterior distributions rather than overconfident point estimates. Every modeling assumption is transparent and interrogable.
- Full posterior distributions that reflect what you genuinely know
- Transparent modeling assumptions you can examine and validate
- Rigorous propagation of uncertainty through decision chains
- Credible intervals calibrated to your actual evidence
- Comprehensive model diagnostics and validation
Economic Decision Science
We specialize in decision-making under genuine uncertainty. Our work centers on resource allocation, strategic planning, and investment decisions where understanding and managing uncertainty determines outcomes.
- Expected utility frameworks for optimal decision-making
- Value of information analysis to guide data collection
- Portfolio optimization with full uncertainty propagation
- Causal inference for intervention planning
- Sequential decision frameworks and adaptive strategies
Modern Bayesian Infrastructure
We work with modern probabilistic programming frameworks and open-source tools, delivering production-ready models that integrate with your systems and can be maintained by your team.
- Modern tools: PyMC, Stan, JAX, NumPyro, GPJax, GPyTorch
- Transparent, reproducible workflows you fully own
- Production deployment with robust engineering practices
- Comprehensive knowledge transfer and documentation
- Flexible engagement models tailored to your needs
What Our Clients Say
We work with organizations across sectors who need rigorous uncertainty quantification for high-stakes economic decisions.
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CTO, [TODO: Organization]
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Ready to make decisions with confidence?
Whether you’re facing a complex strategic decision or building ongoing analytical capability, we bring deep expertise in Bayesian methods to help you quantify uncertainty rigorously and make choices that account for what you don’t—and do—know.
Get in touch